The GOP and Science, never the twain shall meet ?

On Climate Change, its the Republican Party vs. Reality.

A comprehensive Wonk Room survey of the Republican candidates for the U.S. Senate finds that nearly all dispute the scientific consensus that the United States must act to fight global warming pollution. In May, 2010, the National Academies of Science reported to Congress that “the U.S. should act now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and develop a national strategy to adapt to the inevitable impacts of climate change” because global warming is “caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for — and in many cases is already affecting — a broad range of human and natural systems.”

This finding is shared by hundreds of scientific bodies around the world (over 99%). However, in the alternate reality of the fossil-fueled right wing, climate science is confused or a conspiracy, and policies to limit pollution would destroy the economy.

Remarkably, of the dozens of Republicans vying for the 37 Senate seats in the 2010 election, only one — Rep. Mike Castle of Delaware — supports climate action. Even former climate advocates Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) now toe the science-doubting party line. If Castle loses his primary on Tuesday to Tea Party candidate Christine O’Donnell, the GOP slate will be unanimous in opposition to a green economy.

Sharron Angle, Republican Tea-Party candidate for the US Senate (Delaware)

I don't, however, buy into the whole ... man-caused global warming, man-caused climate change mantra of the left. I believe that there's not sound science to back that up.

The National Academy of Sciences :

As part of its most comprehensive study of climate change to date, the National Research Council today issued three reports emphasizing why the U.S. should act now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and develop a national strategy to adapt to the inevitable impacts of climate change. The reports by the Research Council, the operating arm of the National Academy of Sciences and National Academy of Engineering, are part of a congressionally requested suite of five studies known as America's Climate Choices....

The compelling case that climate change is occurring and is caused in large part by human activities is based on a strong, credible body of evidence, says Advancing the Science of Climate Change, one of the new reports. While noting that there is always more to learn and that the scientific process is never "closed," the report emphasizes that multiple lines of evidence support scientific understanding of climate change. The core phenomenon, scientific questions, and hypotheses have been examined thoroughly and have stood firm in the face of serious debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations.

"Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for — and in many cases is already affecting — a broad range of human and natural systems," the report concludes. It calls for a new era of climate change science where an emphasis is placed on "fundamental, use-inspired" research, which not only improves understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change but also is useful to decision makers at the local, regional, national, and international levels acting to limit and adapt to climate change. Seven cross-cutting research themes are identified to support this more comprehensive and integrative scientific enterprise.

Ken Buck, Republican candidate for Colorado :

I’ll tell you, I have looked at global warming, now climate change, from both sides. While I think the earth is warming, I don’t think that man-made causes are the primary factor. I am one of those people that Al Gore refers to as a skeptic.

The American Geophysical Union :

The Earth's climate is now clearly out of balance and is warming. Many components of the climate system-including the temperatures of the atmosphere, land and ocean, the extent of sea ice and mountain glaciers, the sea level, the distribution of precipitation, and the length of seasons-are now changing at rates and in patterns that are not natural and are best explained by the increased atmospheric abundances of greenhouse gases and aerosols generated by human activity during the 20th century. Global average surface temperatures increased on average by about 0.6¡C over the period 1956-2006. As of 2006, eleven of the previous twelve years were warmer than any others since 1850. The observed rapid retreat of Arctic sea ice is expected to continue and lead to the disappearance of summertime ice within this century. Evidence from most oceans and all continents except Antarctica shows warming attributable to human activities.

Linda McMahon, Republican Senate candidate, Connecticut

I think there's evidence to the positive and to the contrary about global warming.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

The 2009 State of the Climate report released today draws on data for 10 key climate indicators that all point to the same finding: the scientific evidence that our world is warming is unmistakable. More than 300 scientists from 160 research groups in 48 countries contributed to the report, which confirms that the past decade was the warmest on record and that the Earth has been growing warmer over the last 50 years.

Marco Rubio, Republican Senate candidate, Florida :

In an interview with the Tribune on that subject Friday, Rubio called Crist "a believer in man-made global warming."

"I don't think there's the scientific evidence to justify it," Rubio said.

Asked whether he accepts the scientific evidence that the global climate is undergoing change, he responded, "The climate is always changing. The climate is never static. The question is whether it's caused by man-made activity and whether it justifies economically destructive government regulation."

American Association for the Advancement of Science :

The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society.

Pat Toomey, Republican Senate candidate for Pennsylvania :

There is much debate in the scientific community as to the precise sources of global warming.

American Chemical Society :

Careful and comprehensive scientific assessments have clearly demonstrated that the Earth’s climate system is changing rapidly in response to growing atmospheric burdens of greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosol particles (IPCC, 2007). There is very little room for doubt that observed climate trends are due to human activities. The threats are serious and action is urgently needed to mitigate the risks of climate change.

Roy Blunt, Republican Senate candidate for Missouri :

There isn’t any real science to say we are altering the climate path of the earth.

American Meteorological Society :

Indeed, strong observational evidence and results from modeling studies indicate that, at least over the last 50 years, human activities are a major contributor to climate change.

Direct human impact is through changes in the concentration of certain trace gases such as carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, and water vapor, known collectively as greenhouse gases.

American Physical Society :

The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth’s physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now.

Carly Fiorina, Republican candidate for Senate, California :

Q: Is climate change real?

Fiorina: I’m not sure. I think we should have the confidence and courage to test the science.

Joint statement by the American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Chemical Society, American Geophysical Union, American Institute of Biological Sciences, American Meteorological Society, American Society of Agronomy, American Society of Plant Biologists, American Statistical Association, Association of Ecosystem Research Centers, Botanical Society of America, Crop Science Society of America, Ecological Society of America, Natural Science Collections Alliance, Organization of Biological Field Stations, Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Society of Systematic Biologists, Soil Science Society of America, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research:

Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver. These conclusions are based on multiple independent lines of evidence, and contrary assertions are inconsistent with an objective assessment of the vast body of peer-reviewed science. Moreover, there is strong evidence that ongoing climate change will have broad impacts on society, including the global economy and on the environment.

 

This would be funny if it weren't so dangerous. This isn't a debate between Republicans and Democrats about what to do about climate change, it's a debate between Republicans and reality about the very existence of climate change. And it's clear that no amount of science will convince Republicans of something they just don't want to believe. The question is whether the voters want to listen to the scientists or to those whose beliefs are not based on anything remotely rational or factual. And it's only the future of the world as we know it that's at stake.

Carbon Dioxide - How much is human activity adding to the atmosphere ?

Carbon Dioxide or CO2 is frequently mentioned as the primary catalyst for the observed warming of the planet over the past several decades, and mankind's CO2 emissions are pointed to as the primary factor in the increasing volume of CO2 in the atmosphere. However, how much have CO2 levels really increased and how much is human activity contributing to this increase ? Are there other sources ?

Measured CO2 emissions by human activity vs net atmospheric CO2

Comments on this graph :

• Total CO2 emissions per Dept of Energy : http://www.eia.doe.gov/aer/txt/ptb1119.html
• Historic CO2 emissions calculated by tabulating coal, brown coal, peat, and crude oil production by nation and year, going back to 1751.  Data prior to this point assumed to be level (close to unmeasurably low) - spike in 18th C begun by coal and oil energy use.
• Atmospheric CO2 levels are measured by hundreds of monitoring stations across the globe. Independent measurements are also conducted by airplanes and satellites. data for periods prior to are determined from air bubbles trapped in polar ice cores. In pre-industrial times over the last 10,000 years, CO2 was relatively stable at around 275 to 285 parts per million. Over the last 250 years, atmospheric CO2 levels have increased by about 100 parts per million. Currently, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing by around 15 gigatonnes every year.

[ sources : ice core air bubble CO2 levels : http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/metadata/noaa-icecore-2419.html ; modern day CO2 atmospheric levels measured in Hawaii - http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ ; cumulative CO2 emissions data by human activity - http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/overview_2006.html ]

The Earth absorbs a large volume of this increase in CO2 pollution into natural absorption sinks (plant absorption and sea absorption), however increased absorption into the oceans in particular will lead to a change in the acidity in sea water, significantly harming sea life including plankton, a key supplier of oxygen in the atmosphere.

In addition to direct pollution from the burning of fossil fuels, deforrestation also reduces the planet's ability to naturally absorb CO2 - as such, deforrestation is another human activity which causes increased CO2 volume in the atmosphere.

What do we know about CO2 that makes it a greenhouse gas, a gas that by its very nature, traps heat ?  According to radiative physics and decades of laboratory measurements, increased CO2 in the atmosphere is expected to absorb more infrared radiation as it escapes back out to space.  In 1970, NASA launched the IRIS satellite measuring infrared spectra.  In 1996, the Japanese Space Agency launched the IMG satellite which recorded similar observations.  Both sets of data were compared to discern any changes in outgoing radiation over the 26 year period (Harries 2001).  What they found was a drop in outgoing radiation at the wavelength bands that greenhouse gases such as CO2 and methane (CH4) absorb energy.  The change in outgoing radiation was consistent with theoretical expectations.  Thus the paper found "direct experimental evidence for a significant increase in the Earth's greenhouse effect". This result has been confirmed by subsequent papers using data from later satellites (Griggs 2004, Chen 2007).

Outgoing radiation is the reflected heat from the Sun, reflecting off of the Earth's surface back out into space.  As CO2 and related global warming gases absorb this radiated heat, preventing it from escaping, the atmosphere warms.  Warmer air warms the surface, melting ice and causing thermal expansion of water molecules in the Oceans.

This chart details the change between 1970 and 1998 (28 yrs) in absorption of normally reflected sunlight back into space.  As you can see there is less reflected energy since 1970 at exactly the wavelengths at which Carbon Dioxide and Methane absorb radated heat.  This is directly observed evidence of the increasing trapping of reflected sun light being caused by higher concentrations of CO2 and CH4 in the atmosphere.

[ source : http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v410/n6826/abs/410355a0.html ]

When greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4 absorb infrared radiation, the energy heats the atmosphere which in turn re-radiates infrared radiation in all directions. Some makes its way back to the earth's surface. Hence we expect to find more infrared radiation heading downwards from the upper atmosphere, back to the ground. Surface measurements from 1973 to 2008 find an increasing trend of infrared radiation returning to earth (Wang 2009).

This graph represents the amount of radiated heat energy at the surface, note the correlation between the peaks in radiated heat and the wavelengths at which carbon dioxide and methane generate radiated heat.  This is direct, measured, imperical evidence that CO2 and CH4 significantly add to radiative heat, warming the atmosphere and the surface of the Earth.

[ source : http://ams.confex.com/ams/Annual2006/techprogram/paper_100737.htm ]

With more energy coming in than escaping back out to space, our planet accumulates heat. The Earth's total heat build up can be derived by adding up the heat content from the ocean, atmosphere, land and ice (Murphy 2009). Ocean heat content has been measured down to 3000 metres deep. Atmospheric heat content is calculated from the surface temperature record and heat capacity of the troposphere. Land and ice heat content (eg - the energy required to melt ice) are also included.

[ sources : http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009JD012105.shtml ; http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v453/n7198/abs/nature07080.html ]

From 1970 to 2003, Earth has been accumulating heat at a rate of 190,260 GigaWatts with the vast majority warming the oceans. Considering a typical nuclear power plant has an output of 1 GigaWatt, imagine 190,000 nuclear power plants pouring their energy output directly into our oceans. What about after 2003? A map of of ocean heat from 2003 to 2008 was constructed from ocean heat measurements down to 2000 metres deep (von Schuckmann 2009). Globally, the oceans have continued to accumulate heat to the end of 2008 at a rate of 0.77 ± 0.11 Wm?2, consistent with other determinations of the planet's energy imbalance (Hansen 2005, Trenberth 2009). The planet continues to accumulate heat.

Warmer oceans will lead to higher precipition and more storms as more and more water vapor enters the atmosphere.   Water vapor is also a significant heat trapping agent.

[ source : http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2008BAMS2634.1 ]

So, we have established CO2 emissions by human activity are up significantly.  We have determined there is significantly more CO2 entering the atmosphere and the Earth is absorbing CO2 at similar rates to the past.  We have determined that CO2 and CH4 interfere with the reflection of sunlight back into space, trapping the heat and radiating it in all directions.   We have measurements of higher radiated heat at the wavelengths of CO2 and CH4, we have measurements of rising temperatures across the board, with the highest in the oceans.    We anticipate more water vapor to enter the atmosphere, a feedback loop which will accelerate warming and also cause more storms such as cyclons and hurricanes, localized flooding and changes in participation leading to droughts in some areas and high precipition in other areas.

So we see a direct line of evidence that we're causing global warming. Human CO2 emissions far outstrip the rise in CO2 levels. The enhanced greenhouse effect is confirmed by satellite and surface measurements. The planet's energy imbalance is confirmed by summations of the planet's total heat content and ocean heat measurements.

Climate Change Science in Plain English - #1

A rather excellent plain English discussion of climate change, first in a series of "plain english science" videos I will be posting on a regular basis on this blog.



Please share.

UN makes progress with new negotiations to address Global Warming

April 11th, the first round of formal negotiations toward a binding treaty to address global warming has been completed in Bonn Germany with the participation of over 100 nations. Negotiations are ongoing to build upon the Dec'09 Copenhagen Accord and change pledges within that accord to binding agreements. As it stands the Copenhagen Accord alone is widely assessed to be too weak to meet its goal of keeping global warming within a 2 degree celsius upper limit.



Work continues through this year leading up to final all party negotations in Mexico this coming December. Parties in Bonn have agreed to intensify negotations to ensure that most agreement is complete in time for the conference in Mexico.

UN Bonn Concluding Press Release

[source : http://unfccc.int/meetings/intersessional/bonn_10/items/5533.php ]